The yield of China's 10-year treasury bonds dropped to 1.87% at the beginning of the session, and the betting easing policy was accelerated. The yield of 10-year treasury bonds "24 Treasury bonds with interest 11" dropped by 3.5bp to 1.87%, hitting a record low.The introduction of detailed measures for the supervision of centralized drug consumables emphasizes the priority of using the selected products. Recently, the Notice of the National Health and Health Committee of the National Medical Insurance Bureau on Improving the Working Mechanism of Centralized Drug Purchasing and Implementation put forward detailed measures to strengthen the supervision of the admission, use, monitoring and assessment of centralized drug consumables. The local authorities are required to conduct investigations from the third month after centralized procurement, and urge medical institutions to give priority to the use of selected products and rationally manage the use of non-selected drugs. Emphasis is placed on the dynamic monitoring of the online price and purchase volume of centralized varieties, and institutions that fail to complete the agreed purchase volume will be regarded as unqualified. It is required to improve the provincial consultation mechanism for centralized procurement, ensure stable supply, and at the same time promote comprehensive supervision in coordination, curb unhealthy practices, and promote the priority use of selected drugs and consumables. (Official WeChat official account of the National Medical Insurance Bureau)The yen fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since November 29th, at 151.55.
Pacific Securities: The historical low of the valuation office of liquor industry is about to be repaired. The Pacific Securities Research Report pointed out that the liquor industry is rationally slowing down, and the valuation office is at a historical low, and it is about to be repaired. Next year, the leading growth target will generally drop to single digits. However, the accumulated inventory risk and pricing pressure still need time to gradually ease after the imbalance between supply and demand has intensified in the past two years and the previous industry bubble has receded. With the economic recovery stimulated by this round of policies and the stabilization of the bottom of the real estate industry, the liquor industry is expected to usher in a wave of recovery. Since 2023, industry differentiation has intensified, but with the improvement of management level and refined channel operation in recent years, excellent wine enterprises have stronger marketing foundation and anti-risk ability compared with previous downward cycles. The price of high-end wine determines the brand position, so the approval price is more important, which depends on the choice of quantity and price and the control of approval price by wine enterprises. Sub-high-end needs to pay more attention to channel risks. The high growth brought by pre-distribution investment needs to be tested in the downward period, and once the channel collapses and stalls, it is difficult to reverse it. Real estate wine pays attention to the growth momentum of internal product structure and the market potential in and around the province. The upgrading speed determines the slope and the ceiling determines the space. Suggested attention: Wuliangye, LU ZHOU LAO JIAO CO.,LTD, Shuijingfang, etc.The introduction of detailed measures for the supervision of centralized drug consumables emphasizes the priority of using the selected products. Recently, the Notice of the National Health and Health Committee of the National Medical Insurance Bureau on Improving the Working Mechanism of Centralized Drug Purchasing and Implementation put forward detailed measures to strengthen the supervision of the admission, use, monitoring and assessment of centralized drug consumables. The local authorities are required to conduct investigations from the third month after centralized procurement, and urge medical institutions to give priority to the use of selected products and rationally manage the use of non-selected drugs. Emphasis is placed on the dynamic monitoring of the online price and purchase volume of centralized varieties, and institutions that fail to complete the agreed purchase volume will be regarded as unqualified. It is required to improve the provincial consultation mechanism for centralized procurement, ensure stable supply, and at the same time promote comprehensive supervision in coordination, curb unhealthy practices, and promote the priority use of selected drugs and consumables. (Official WeChat official account of the National Medical Insurance Bureau)Guotai Junan: Policy optimization or help improve the long-term return of the expressway industry. Guotai Junan Research Report pointed out that location advantage determines the return of road production, and policy optimization or help improve the long-term return of the expressway industry. 1) Expressway is the preferred way to deliver high dividends. In the past three years, the A-share market favored high dividends, and the excess returns of expressways were remarkable. The dividend yield depends on the dividend rate and PE valuation level. Expressway is an infrastructure asset with heavy assets and stable returns, with rigid demand and stable cash flow, and the high dividend policy continues, which is in line with market preferences. 2) Resilience of industry operation: In 2023, the repressive demand was released and the performance increased. In the first half of 2024, the industry was under pressure due to the increase of rain and snow and free days. In the second half of 2024, or due to economic impact, the traffic volume and profit of some high-speed vehicles decreased slightly, the traffic demand remained resilient and the cash flow remained stable. 3) The pressure of reinvestment may be expected to improve the policy. Expressway toll prices have been stable for a long time, while the cost of newly built or renovated units has risen sharply, and there is widespread reinvestment pressure in the industry. In the future, the industry is expected to optimize policies, or improve the high-speed return of new construction or expansion to a reasonable level by extending the charging period. 4) Expressway REITs: generally, they are stock road products with excellent location and stable returns. In 2023, the system was under pressure, and in 2024, the expressway REITs with better profit than the industry were among the top gainers. The performance of underlying assets in the future will still be the key to dominate the performance of REITs.
CICC: The non-agricultural data in November supported the Fed to continue to cut interest rates. The CICC research report pointed out that after being seriously hindered by hurricanes and strikes, the number of new jobs in the United States rose sharply to 227,000 in November, but the unemployment rate also rose to 4.2%, indicating that the labor market is slowing down. On the whole, the labor market is still in a state of "the momentum of employment growth is weakening, but the job market itself is not weak", which will provide reasons for the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again in December. However, we also predict that the Fed will slow down the pace of interest rate cuts in 2025, because as interest rates approach the neutral level, policymakers will become more cautious. One prediction risk is the impact of Trump's immigration policy on the labor market. At present, we tend to have a moderate impact, but we also need to pay close attention to the possibility of extreme situations. Based on non-agricultural data, we believe that the Fed is expected to cut interest rates by 25 basis points again this month.CITIC Securities: Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a window of policy improvement, and we can bargain and seize the opportunity of valuation repair. CITIC Securities recently reported that the situation in the light industry has been severe since 2024, but it still presents three bright spots: channel reconstruction of the personal care industry, internationalization of the tobacco industry and asset integration of the metal packaging industry. The above-mentioned opportunities for subdividing the track are expected to continue and be further strengthened in 2025. Short-term home fundamentals are expected to usher in a policy improvement window, which can be laid out on dips, seize the opportunity of valuation repair, pay attention to industry demand and policy continuity, and attach importance to reasonable valuation intervals. In 2025, the papermaking and paper packaging industries will benefit from the recovery of consumption.Details of the arrest of the person involved in the killing of the CEO of the insurance giant in new york surfaced: Luigi Mangione, who was regarded by the new york police as the person involved in the murder of Brian Thompson, an executive of UnitedHealth Group Inc, was arrested in Pennsylvania on Monday, and now he is accused of possessing illegal firearms and using false identification. According to the criminal indictment issued by the Pennsylvania court system on Monday night, Mangione, 26, made her first appearance in the court in Hollidaysburg. He was charged with five counts, including forgery, holding a gun without a license and showing false documents to law enforcement agencies. Mangione was detained by the police after being recognized and reported by employees in a McDonald's restaurant in Altoona that morning. The police officer asked him to show his identity, and Mangione took out a New Jersey driver's license named "Mark Rosario" and the date of birth was July 1998. The police officer then asked him if he had been to new york recently. "The man fell silent and began to tremble," the indictment said. When more police arrived at the scene, Mangione was told that he was under investigation and would be arrested if he lied about his identity. He later said that his name was Luigi Mangione and that he was born in May 1998. A police officer asked Mangione why he lied, and he replied, "I obviously shouldn't." The police arrested him on charges of forgery and providing false information to law enforcement agencies. He was handcuffed, searched and taken back to the police station. A black pistol and a silencer were found in his backpack, both of which were made of 3D printers. This pistol has a metal sleeve, a metal threaded barrel and a plastic handle, and a Glock magazine with six 9mm bullets. A dropped bullet was also found in the defendant's backpack.